Washington State’s points of margin with Caden Pinnick and since Caden Pinnick’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Washington State was 2.4 points under with Caden Pinnick and 4.2 points under since Caden Pinnick’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -5.2 and -15.0, a difference of 9.8. Both night games were with Caden Pinnick. All 4 nonconference games were with Caden Pinnick. All 4 first-half games were with Caden Pinnick.
Caden Pinnick, quarterback: 952 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 110 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games since Caden Pinnick’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +9.8 difference in points of margin with Caden Pinnick vs since Caden Pinnick’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Washington | L | -14 | -17.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | -27 | -8.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Arizona | L | -10 | -20.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | -20 | -2.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | -1 | -12.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | -18 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | -21 | -14.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | -6 | 0.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Duquesne has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.