Wake Forest’s third-down conversion rate with Jamar Searcy and without Jamar Searcy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 5.7 percentage points over with Jamar Searcy and 0.3 percentage points under without Jamar Searcy over its last 25 games, 10 games against 10. The plain averages are 46.7% and 40.8%, a difference of 6.0%. Both games while ranked were with Jamar Searcy.
Jamar Searcy, running back: 237 rushing yards, 31 carries and 1 reception in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jamar Searcy
+5.7%
without Jamar Searcy
−0.3%
-20%0%20%
A +6.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
plain
46.7%
40.8%
20%40%60%
A +6.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jamar Searcywithout Jamar Searcy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs California | L | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ North Carolina | L | 42.9% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 28.6% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Duke | L | 52.6% | 36.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 35.3% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Western Carolina | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | vs NC State | L | 40.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 50.0% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 35.3% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 11.1% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 33.3% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 37.5% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Virginia | W | 29.4% | 31.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 46.2% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 50.0% | 43.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Duke | L | 50.0% | 40.1% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Mississippi State (neutral) | W | 60.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 46.7% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 45.5% | 48.0% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsMiami (FL) | L | 33.3% | 48.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisville | W | 20.0% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 76.9% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @NC State | W | 53.8% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @California | W | 57.1% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 64.3% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jamar Searcy nor without Jamar Searcy: Jamar Searcy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.