Wake Forest’s third-down conversion rate with Jamar Searcy and without Jamar Searcy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 11.3 percentage points over with Jamar Searcy and 8.8 percentage points under without Jamar Searcy in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 53.1% and 39.4%, a difference of 13.8%. Both games while ranked were with Jamar Searcy. All 4 second-half games were with Jamar Searcy.
Jamar Searcy, running back: 198 rushing yards, 26 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jamar Searcy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +20.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
A +13.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 46.7% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 45.5% | 48.0% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 33.3% | 48.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisville | W | 20.0% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 76.9% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NC State | W | 53.8% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ California | W | 57.1% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 64.3% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.