Wake Forest’s carries with Jamar Searcy and without Jamar Searcy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 2.4 carries over with Jamar Searcy and 6.3 carries under without Jamar Searcy in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 38.3 and 28.0, a difference of 10.3. Both games while ranked were with Jamar Searcy. All 4 second-half games were with Jamar Searcy.
Jamar Searcy, running back: 198 rushing yards, 26 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season, 11% of Wake Forest’s carries in those games.
2 games without Jamar Searcy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +8.6 difference in carries over expected with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
A +10.3 difference in carries with Jamar Searcy vs without Jamar Searcy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 32 | 36.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 40 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 16 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisville | W | 41 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 37 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NC State | W | 33 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ California | W | 36 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 51 | 33.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.