Virginia Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Ayden Greene and without Ayden Greene
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia Tech was 2.0 percentage points over with Ayden Greene and 11.9 percentage points under without Ayden Greene in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.8% and 26.7%, a difference of 14.1%. All 4 home games were with Ayden Greene. All 4 night games were with Ayden Greene. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayden Greene.
Ayden Greene, receiver: 294 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Ayden Greene is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ayden Greene
+2.0%
without Ayden Greene
−11.9%
0%20%
plain
40.8%
26.7%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Ayden Greenewithout Ayden Greene
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs VMI | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 47.6% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 62.5% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Boston College | W | 26.7% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 37.5% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ California | L | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 30.8% | 46.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 33.3% | 34.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- VMI has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.