Virginia Tech’s third-down conversion rate vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through Virginia Tech’s game on Oct 24, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia Tech was 16.2 percentage points under vs a ranked opponent and 4.0 percentage points over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 20.8% and 42.7%, a difference of 21.9%. All 12 night games were vs an unranked opponent. All 3 games after a bye were vs an unranked opponent. All 8 games since Philip Montgomery were vs an unranked opponent.
Virginia Tech’s −20.2% vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 76th of the 76 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 24, 2026.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −20.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −21.9% difference in third-down conversion rate vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Syracuse | L | 45.5% | 35.5% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Clemson | L | 14.3% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Duke | L | 31.6% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Virginia | W | 46.2% | 36.8% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 37.1% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | L | 44.4% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 42.9% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 46.2% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Wofford | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ NC State | W | 46.7% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 41.2% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 0.0% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs California | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 26.7% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 66.7% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 25.0% | 32.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Virginia | L | 14.3% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs VMI | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOld Dominion | W | 47.6% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 62.5% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Boston College | W | 26.7% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 37.5% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @California | L | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 30.8% | 46.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Clemson | W | 33.3% | 34.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wofford, VMI have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 24.