Virginia Tech’s points with Ayden Greene and without Ayden Greene
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia Tech was 2.4 points over with Ayden Greene and 6.6 points under without Ayden Greene in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.0 and 21.0, a difference of 16.0. All 4 home games were with Ayden Greene. All 4 night games were with Ayden Greene. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayden Greene.
Ayden Greene, receiver: 294 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Ayden Greene is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Ayden Greene
+2.4
without Ayden Greene
−6.6
-10010
plain
37.0
21.0
204060
The games
with Ayden Greenewithout Ayden Greene
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs VMI | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 44 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 35 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Boston College | W | 21 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 33 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ California | L | 20 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 34 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 20 | 20.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- VMI has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.