Putting Up Numbers· college football

Vanderbilt’s total yards with Blaze Berlowitz and without Blaze Berlowitz

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 27.2 yards over with Blaze Berlowitz and 20.5 yards under without Blaze Berlowitz in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 344.0 and 344.0, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 98.8 yards lower with Blaze Berlowitz than without Blaze Berlowitz.

Blaze Berlowitz, quarterback: 386 passing yards, 53 pass attempts and 28 completions in 5 games this season.

2 games with Blaze Berlowitz is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

A 0.0 difference in total yards with Blaze Berlowitz vs without Blaze Berlowitz is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Blaze Berlowitzwithout Blaze Berlowitz
Vanderbilt’s games, 2026, each marked with Blaze Berlowitz or without Blaze Berlowitz
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsAAustin PeayW395—
Sep 12, 2026vsDelawareW344457.1
Sep 19, 2026vsNC StateW409379.6
Sep 26, 2026@AuburnL311335.9
Oct 3, 2026@GeorgiaL293265.8
Oct 10, 2026vsOle MissL347344.1
Oct 17, 2026vsArkansasL390351.6
Oct 24, 2026@KentuckyL263319.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.