Vanderbilt’s third-down conversion rate with Jared Curtis and without Jared Curtis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 1.3 percentage points over with Jared Curtis and 6.0 percentage points over without Jared Curtis over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.5% and 37.5%, a difference of 5.0%. Expected was 5.6 percentage points higher with Jared Curtis than without Jared Curtis.
Jared Curtis, quarterback: 1,489 passing yards, 197 pass attempts and 128 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games without Jared Curtis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jared Curtis
+1.3%
without Jared Curtis
+6.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
42.5%
37.5%
30%40%50%
A +5.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jared Curtis vs without Jared Curtis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jared Curtiswithout Jared Curtis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs South Carolina | L | 46.2% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 20.0% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Tennessee | L | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 39.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 71.4% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 60.0% | 53.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 62.5% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 45.5% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 46.2% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 30.0% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 53.8% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 58.3% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 33.3% | 50.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tennessee | W | 70.0% | 44.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Iowa (neutral) | L | 22.2% | 43.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 41.7% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Auburn | L | 23.5% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 41.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 52.9% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 45.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kentucky | L | 58.3% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jared Curtis nor without Jared Curtis: Jared Curtis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.