Vanderbilt’s points with Brian Allen Jr. and without Brian Allen Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 1.0 points over with Brian Allen Jr. and 3.3 points under without Brian Allen Jr. over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 28.8 and 16.8, a difference of 12.0. All 3 away games were without Brian Allen Jr.. All 3 nonconference games were with Brian Allen Jr..
Brian Allen Jr., defender: 2 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Brian Allen Jr.
+1.0
without Brian Allen Jr.
−3.3
-505
A +4.4 difference in points over expected with Brian Allen Jr. vs without Brian Allen Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.8
16.8
2030
A +12.0 difference in points with Brian Allen Jr. vs without Brian Allen Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brian Allen Jr. and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
with Brian Allen Jr.without Brian Allen Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs South Carolina | L | 7 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 17 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Tennessee | L | 23 | 21.3 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 35 | 24.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 44 | 38.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @South Carolina | W | 31 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 70 | 47.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 55 | 42.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 14 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 31 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 17 | 35.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 31 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 45 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 45 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tennessee | W | 45 | 37.9 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Iowa (neutral) | L | 27 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 35 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 35 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Auburn | L | 15 | 19.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 17 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 21 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kentucky | L | 17 | 18.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brian Allen Jr. nor without Brian Allen Jr.: Brian Allen Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.