Vanderbilt’s points of margin with Jared Curtis and without Jared Curtis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 3.7 points under with Jared Curtis and 5.0 points over without Jared Curtis in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -9.2 and -2.5, a difference of 6.7. Expected was 23.6 points higher with Jared Curtis than without Jared Curtis.
Jared Curtis, quarterback: 1,489 passing yards, 197 pass attempts and 128 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Jared Curtis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jared Curtis
−3.7
without Jared Curtis
+5.0
-20-10010
plain
-9.2
-2.5
-200
A −6.7 difference in points of margin with Jared Curtis vs without Jared Curtis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jared Curtiswithout Jared Curtis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 19 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 9 | 11.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 4 | 6.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | -6 | -17.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -24 | -29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | -35 | -15.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | -10 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | -17 | -21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.