Vanderbilt’s points of margin with Blaze Berlowitz and without Blaze Berlowitz
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 5.0 points over with Blaze Berlowitz and 0.0 points under without Blaze Berlowitz over its last 25 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are -2.5 and 7.8, a difference of 10.3. Expected was 34.9 points lower with Blaze Berlowitz than without Blaze Berlowitz. All 10 games while ranked were without Blaze Berlowitz. Both games after a bye were without Blaze Berlowitz.
Blaze Berlowitz, quarterback: 517 passing yards, 70 pass attempts and 37 completions in 11 of those 25 games.
2 games with Blaze Berlowitz is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.3 difference in points of margin with Blaze Berlowitz vs without Blaze Berlowitz is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs South Carolina | L | -21 | -4.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ LSU | L | -7 | -10.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Tennessee | L | -13 | -6.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 8 | 0.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 24 | 16.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @South Carolina | W | 24 | 5.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 49 | 39.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 20 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | -16 | -0.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 7 | 13.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 7 | 9.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Texas | L | -3 | 1.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 7 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 28 | 15.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tennessee | W | 21 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Iowa (neutral) | L | -7 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 19 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 9 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 4 | 6.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Auburn | L | -6 | -17.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -24 | -29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | -35 | -14.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | -10 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kentucky | L | -17 | -21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Charleston Southern, Austin Peay have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 9 of these 21 games; in the other 12 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Blaze Berlowitz nor without Blaze Berlowitz: Blaze Berlowitz had no game for the team that season, and sit out.