Vanderbilt’s points allowed with Brian Allen Jr. and without Brian Allen Jr.
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 9.2 points over with Brian Allen Jr. and 2.7 points under without Brian Allen Jr. in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 29.5 and 31.0, a difference of 1.5. Expected was 6.6 points lower with Brian Allen Jr. than without Brian Allen Jr.. All 3 away games were without Brian Allen Jr.. All 3 nonconference games were with Brian Allen Jr..
Brian Allen Jr., defender: 2 games this season.
points allowed a game over expected
A +11.9 difference in points allowed over expected with Brian Allen Jr. vs without Brian Allen Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brian Allen Jr. and it comes up 9 times in 100.
A −1.5 difference in points allowed with Brian Allen Jr. vs without Brian Allen Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 9 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 26 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 31 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 21 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 38 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 52 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 31 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 34 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.