Vanderbilt’s passing yards with Blaze Berlowitz and without Blaze Berlowitz
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 10.3 yards over with Blaze Berlowitz and 6.4 yards over without Blaze Berlowitz in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 208.5 and 246.0, a difference of 37.5. Expected was 41.8 yards lower with Blaze Berlowitz than without Blaze Berlowitz.
Blaze Berlowitz, quarterback: 386 passing yards, 53 pass attempts and 28 completions in 5 games this season, 35% of Vanderbilt’s passing yards in those games.
2 games with Blaze Berlowitz is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A −37.5 difference in passing yards with Blaze Berlowitz vs without Blaze Berlowitz is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Blaze Berlowitz and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 209 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 239 | 291.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 277 | 235.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 199 | 234.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 208 | 197.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 240 | 224.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 274 | 227.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 247 | 224.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.