Vanderbilt’s passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 49.5 yards under vs a ranked opponent and 91.9 yards over vs an unranked opponent in 2025, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 216.2 and 348.7, a difference of 132.5. All 5 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Vanderbilt’s −141.4 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 36th of the 36 teams with 4 games on each side in 2025.
passing yards a game over expected
A −141.4 difference in passing yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
A −132.5 difference in passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 280 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 228 | 276.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 177 | 276.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 349 | 296.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 321 | 312.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 198 | 249.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 160 | 262.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 129 | 255.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 365 | 263.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 377 | 263.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 539 | 246.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 268 | 286.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Iowa (neutral) | L | 347 | 215.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.