Vanderbilt’s carries with Jared Curtis and without Jared Curtis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 2.1 carries under with Jared Curtis and 3.6 carries under without Jared Curtis over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.8 and 32.0, a difference of 2.2. Expected was 2.4 carries higher with Jared Curtis than without Jared Curtis.
Jared Curtis, quarterback: 1,489 passing yards, 197 pass attempts and 128 completions in 7 of those 25 games, 29% of Vanderbilt’s carries in those games.
2 games without Jared Curtis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jared Curtis
−2.1
without Jared Curtis
−3.6
-100
plain
29.8
32.0
203040
A −2.2 difference in carries with Jared Curtis vs without Jared Curtis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jared Curtiswithout Jared Curtis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs South Carolina | L | 28 | 36.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Tennessee | L | 30 | 35.8 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 34 | 32.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 35 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @South Carolina | W | 35 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 36 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 28 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 18 | 30.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 42 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 25 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 24 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 36 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 25 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tennessee | W | 37 | 33.9 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Iowa (neutral) | L | 22 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 34 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Auburn | L | 41 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 26 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 35 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 29 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kentucky | L | 16 | 30.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jared Curtis nor without Jared Curtis: Jared Curtis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.