Vanderbilt’s carries with Blaze Berlowitz and without Blaze Berlowitz
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Vanderbilt was 3.6 carries under with Blaze Berlowitz and 2.1 carries under without Blaze Berlowitz in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 32.0 and 29.8, a difference of 2.2. Expected was 2.4 carries lower with Blaze Berlowitz than without Blaze Berlowitz.
Blaze Berlowitz, quarterback: 386 passing yards, 53 pass attempts and 28 completions in 5 games this season, 14% of Vanderbilt’s carries in those games.
2 games with Blaze Berlowitz is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Blaze Berlowitz
−3.6
without Blaze Berlowitz
−2.1
-100
plain
32.0
29.8
203040
A +2.2 difference in carries with Blaze Berlowitz vs without Blaze Berlowitz is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Blaze Berlowitzwithout Blaze Berlowitz
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAustin Peay | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 34 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 41 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 26 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | L | 35 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas | L | 29 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 16 | 30.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Austin Peay has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.