Utah’s third-down conversion rate with Steve Chavez-Soto and without Steve Chavez-Soto
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah was 8.0 percentage points over with Steve Chavez-Soto and 6.0 percentage points over without Steve Chavez-Soto over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.7% and 47.1%, a difference of 7.7%. All 5 home games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 4 day games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 3 nonconference games were with Steve Chavez-Soto.
Steve Chavez-Soto, running back: 65 rushing yards, 14 carries and 2 receptions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game without Steve Chavez-Soto is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Steve Chavez-Soto
+8.0%
without Steve Chavez-Soto
+6.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
54.7%
47.1%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Steve Chavez-Sotowithout Steve Chavez-Soto
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 41.2% | 31.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa State | L | 30.0% | 32.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ UCF | W | 23.1% | 38.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 87.5% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCal Poly | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 60.0% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | 28.6% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 61.5% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 50.0% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @BYU | L | 41.7% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsColorado | W | 33.3% | 46.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | W | 46.7% | 49.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 54.5% | 47.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 46.7% | 46.2% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 53.8% | 48.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 47.2% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 55.6% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 58.8% | 44.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Iowa State | W | 30.0% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 58.3% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Colorado | W | 47.1% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 50.0% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Cincinnati | W | 63.6% | 45.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Steve Chavez-Soto nor without Steve Chavez-Soto: Steve Chavez-Soto had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.