Utah’s third-down conversion rate with Steve Chavez-Soto and without Steve Chavez-Soto
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah was 8.0 percentage points over with Steve Chavez-Soto and 6.0 percentage points over without Steve Chavez-Soto in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.7% and 47.1%, a difference of 7.7%. All 5 home games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 4 day games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 3 nonconference games were with Steve Chavez-Soto.
Steve Chavez-Soto, running back: 65 rushing yards, 14 carries and 2 receptions in 4 games this season.
One game without Steve Chavez-Soto is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Steve Chavez-Soto
+8.0%
without Steve Chavez-Soto
+6.0%
-10%0%10%
plain
54.7%
47.1%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Steve Chavez-Sotowithout Steve Chavez-Soto
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 55.6% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 58.8% | 44.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Iowa State | W | 30.0% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 58.3% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 47.1% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 50.0% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | W | 63.6% | 45.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.