Utah’s third-down conversion rate with Byrd Ficklin and without Byrd Ficklin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah was 12.6 percentage points under with Byrd Ficklin and 7.2 percentage points over without Byrd Ficklin over its last 25 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are 33.3% and 54.0%, a difference of 20.7%. All 9 away games were without Byrd Ficklin. All 13 day games were without Byrd Ficklin. All 5 ranked opponents were without Byrd Ficklin.
Byrd Ficklin, quarterback: 493 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 32 completions in 20 of those 25 games.
One game with Byrd Ficklin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Byrd Ficklin
−12.6%
without Byrd Ficklin
+7.2%
0%20%
plain
33.3%
54.0%
40%60%80%
The games
with Byrd Ficklinwithout Byrd Ficklin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 41.2% | 31.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa State | L | 30.0% | 32.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ UCF | W | 23.1% | 38.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 87.5% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCal Poly | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 60.0% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | 28.6% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 61.5% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 50.0% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @BYU | L | 41.7% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsColorado | W | 33.3% | 46.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | W | 46.7% | 49.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 54.5% | 47.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 46.7% | 46.2% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 53.8% | 48.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 47.2% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 55.6% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 58.8% | 44.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Iowa State | W | 30.0% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 58.3% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Colorado | W | 47.1% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 50.0% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Cincinnati | W | 63.6% | 45.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly, Idaho have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Byrd Ficklin nor without Byrd Ficklin: Byrd Ficklin had no game for the team that season, and sit out.