Utah’s points of margin with Byrd Ficklin and without Byrd Ficklin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah was 20.5 points over with Byrd Ficklin and 2.2 points over without Byrd Ficklin over its last 25 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are 46.0 and 21.5, a difference of 24.6. All 9 away games were without Byrd Ficklin. All 13 day games were without Byrd Ficklin. All 5 ranked opponents were without Byrd Ficklin.
Byrd Ficklin, quarterback: 493 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 32 completions in 20 of those 25 games.
One game with Byrd Ficklin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Byrd Ficklin
+20.5
without Byrd Ficklin
+2.2
-20020
plain
46.0
21.5
-2002040
The games
with Byrd Ficklinwithout Byrd Ficklin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs BYU | L | -1 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | -25 | -10.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa State | L | -3 | -6.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ UCF | W | 14 | -7.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 33 | 17.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCal Poly | W | 54 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 25 | 31.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | -24 | 2.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 34 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 32 | 16.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @BYU | L | -3 | 5.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsColorado | W | 46 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | W | 31 | 20.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 27 | 15.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 4 | 18.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 10 | 16.2 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | W | 22 | 14.7 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 33 | 15.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 33 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Iowa State | W | 14 | 9.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 17 | 15.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Colorado | W | 3 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 8 | 8.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Cincinnati | W | 24 | 11.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly, Idaho have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Byrd Ficklin nor without Byrd Ficklin: Byrd Ficklin had no game for the team that season, and sit out.