Utah’s carries with Steve Chavez-Soto and without Steve Chavez-Soto
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah was 0.2 carries over with Steve Chavez-Soto and 1.7 carries over without Steve Chavez-Soto over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.6 and 39.0, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 1.7 carries lower with Steve Chavez-Soto than without Steve Chavez-Soto. All 5 home games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 4 day games were with Steve Chavez-Soto. All 3 nonconference games were with Steve Chavez-Soto.
Steve Chavez-Soto, running back: 65 rushing yards, 14 carries and 2 receptions in 4 of those 25 games, 9% of Utah’s carries in those games.
One game without Steve Chavez-Soto is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Steve Chavez-Soto
+0.2
without Steve Chavez-Soto
+1.7
-505
plain
37.6
39.0
354045
The games
with Steve Chavez-Sotowithout Steve Chavez-Soto
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 30 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 30 | 36.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa State | L | 28 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ UCF | W | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 53 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCal Poly | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 45 | 39.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | 31 | 37.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 47 | 41.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 40 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @BYU | L | 37 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsColorado | W | 50 | 44.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | W | 53 | 44.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 41 | 44.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 48 | 42.8 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 27 | 42.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | W | 45 | 41.1 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 48 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 31 | 37.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 35 | 35.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Iowa State | W | 31 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 44 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Colorado | W | 39 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 32 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Cincinnati | W | 42 | 35.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Steve Chavez-Soto nor without Steve Chavez-Soto: Steve Chavez-Soto had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.