Putting Up Numbers· college football

USC’s total yards with Waymond Jordan and without Waymond Jordan

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 34.2 yards over with Waymond Jordan and 127.1 yards under without Waymond Jordan in 2026, 8 games against 1. The plain averages are 448.9 and 241.0, a difference of 207.9. All 6 home games were with Waymond Jordan. All 5 day games were with Waymond Jordan. Both ranked opponents were with Waymond Jordan.

Waymond Jordan, running back: 335 rushing yards, 75 carries and 7 receptions in 8 games this season.

One game without Waymond Jordan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Waymond Jordanwithout Waymond Jordan
USC’s games, 2026, each marked with Waymond Jordan or without Waymond Jordan
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Aug 29, 2026vsSan Jose StateW507462.0
Sep 4, 2026vsFresno StateW553447.3
Sep 12, 2026vsLouisianaW484410.0
Sep 19, 2026@RutgersW466479.6
Sep 26, 2026vsOregonL447368.2
Oct 3, 2026vsWashingtonW362433.0
Oct 10, 2026@Penn StateW433347.8
Oct 24, 2026@WisconsinL241368.1
Oct 31, 2026vsOhio StateW339369.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.