Putting Up Numbers· college football

USC’s total yards with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 22.1 yards over with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and 30.5 yards under since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game over its last 25 games, 8 games against 1. The plain averages are 436.6 and 339.0, a difference of 97.6. All 3 away games were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. All 4 night games were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. All 7 unranked opponents were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt.

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, receiver: 443 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 8 of those 25 games.

One game since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Kayden Dixon-Wyattsince Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game
USC’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt or since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 23, 2024@UCLAW351413.3
Nov 30, 2024vsNotre DameL557384.4
Dec 27, 2024vsTexas A&M (neutral)W400434.1
Aug 30, 2025vsMissouri StateW597505.8
Sep 6, 2025vsGeorgia SouthernW755552.3
Sep 13, 2025@PurdueW461496.7
Sep 20, 2025vsMichigan StateW523471.7
Sep 27, 2025@IllinoisL490417.7
Oct 11, 2025vsMichiganW490427.1
Oct 18, 2025@Notre DameL396394.7
Nov 1, 2025@NebraskaW349446.3
Nov 7, 2025vsNorthwesternW483438.6
Nov 15, 2025vsIowaW363396.6
Nov 22, 2025@OregonL391365.1
Nov 29, 2025vsUCLAW391468.3
Dec 30, 2025vsTCU (neutral)L392459.1
Aug 29, 2026vsSan Jose StateW507462.0
Sep 4, 2026vsFresno StateW553447.3
Sep 12, 2026vsLouisianaW484410.0
Sep 19, 2026@RutgersW466479.6
Sep 26, 2026vsOregonL447368.2
Oct 3, 2026vsWashingtonW362433.0
Oct 10, 2026@Penn StateW433347.8
Oct 24, 2026@WisconsinL241368.1
Oct 31, 2026vsOhio StateW339369.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt nor since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game: Kayden Dixon-Wyatt had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.