USC’s third-down conversion rate with Waymond Jordan and without Waymond Jordan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 6.5 percentage points over with Waymond Jordan and 1.6 percentage points over without Waymond Jordan in 2026, 8 games against 1. The plain averages are 49.3% and 46.7%, a difference of 2.6%. All 6 home games were with Waymond Jordan. All 5 day games were with Waymond Jordan. Both ranked opponents were with Waymond Jordan.
Waymond Jordan, running back: 335 rushing yards, 75 carries and 7 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game without Waymond Jordan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Waymond Jordan
+6.5%
without Waymond Jordan
+1.6%
-20%0%20%
plain
49.3%
46.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with Waymond Jordanwithout Waymond Jordan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 69.2% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 62.5% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 73.3% | 41.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 48.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 18.2% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 35.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 45.5% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 46.7% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 40.0% | 46.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.