USC’s third-down conversion rate with Trent Mosley and without Trent Mosley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 13.6 percentage points over with Trent Mosley and 9.5 percentage points under without Trent Mosley in 2026, 6 games against 3. The plain averages are 56.2% and 34.6%, a difference of 21.6%. All 4 night games were with Trent Mosley. All 3 nonconference games were with Trent Mosley.
Trent Mosley, receiver: 512 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season.
3 games without Trent Mosley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +23.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is unusual: shuffle which games were with Trent Mosley and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +21.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is unusual: shuffle which games were with Trent Mosley and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 69.2% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 62.5% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 73.3% | 41.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 48.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 18.2% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 35.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 45.5% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 46.7% | 45.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 40.0% | 46.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.