USC’s rushing yards with Waymond Jordan and without Waymond Jordan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 24.8 yards over with Waymond Jordan and 47.3 yards under without Waymond Jordan over its last 25 games, 14 games against 8. The plain averages are 182.8 and 106.9, a difference of 75.9. All 5 games while unranked were with Waymond Jordan.
Waymond Jordan, running back: 911 rushing yards, 163 carries and 14 receptions in 14 of those 25 games, 36% of USC’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +72.1 difference in rushing yards over expected with Waymond Jordan vs without Waymond Jordan is unusual: shuffle which games were with Waymond Jordan and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +75.9 difference in rushing yards with Waymond Jordan vs without Waymond Jordan is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Waymond Jordan and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UCLA | W | 91 | 120.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Notre Dame | L | 197 | 139.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 105 | 144.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 233 | 200.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 309 | 233.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 179 | 190.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 289 | 153.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 126 | 149.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 225 | 142.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Notre Dame | L | 68 | 124.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 214 | 182.0 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 174 | 159.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 109 | 147.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 61 | 143.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUCLA | W | 134 | 206.0 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 112 | 151.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 166 | 161.1 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 141 | 155.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 215 | 136.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 189 | 168.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 121 | 122.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 117 | 146.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 132 | 135.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -17 | 117.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 117 | 116.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Waymond Jordan nor without Waymond Jordan: Waymond Jordan had no game for the team that season, and sit out.