USC’s rushing yards with Trent Mosley and without Trent Mosley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 11.4 yards under with Trent Mosley and 3.5 yards under without Trent Mosley in 2026, 6 games against 3. The plain averages are 125.7 and 142.3, a difference of 16.7. All 4 night games were with Trent Mosley. All 3 nonconference games were with Trent Mosley.
Trent Mosley, receiver: 512 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season, 2% of USC’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games without Trent Mosley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −7.9 difference in rushing yards over expected with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is about what you’d expect.
A −16.7 difference in rushing yards with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 166 | 161.1 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 141 | 155.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 215 | 136.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 189 | 168.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 121 | 122.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 117 | 146.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 132 | 135.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -17 | 117.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 117 | 116.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.