USC’s points of margin with Trent Mosley and without Trent Mosley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 8.6 points over with Trent Mosley and 12.1 points under without Trent Mosley over its last 25 games, 6 games against 3. The plain averages are 12.8 and -1.0, a difference of 13.8. All 4 night games were with Trent Mosley. All 3 nonconference games were with Trent Mosley.
Trent Mosley, receiver: 512 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games without Trent Mosley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +20.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trent Mosley and it comes up 11 times in 100.
A +13.8 difference in points of margin with Trent Mosley vs without Trent Mosley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UCLA | W | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Notre Dame | L | -14 | -6.8 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 4 | 0.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 60 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 39 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 16 | 17.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 14 | 19.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | -2 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 18 | 5.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Notre Dame | L | -10 | -11.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 4 | 10.0 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 21 | 13.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 5 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | -15 | -10.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUCLA | W | 19 | 22.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | -3 | 11.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 16 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 39 | 5.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 19 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 7 | 18.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOregon | L | -14 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 4 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 8 | -4.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -17 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 12 | -11.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trent Mosley nor without Trent Mosley: Trent Mosley had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.