USC’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 6.6 points over at home and 4.2 points under away over its last 25 games, 14 games against 9. The plain averages are 39.1 and 26.2, a difference of 12.9.
USC’s +10.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 6th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+6.6
away
−4.2
-20020
A +10.8 difference in points over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 3 times in 100.
plain
39.1
26.2
204060
A +12.9 difference in points at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UCLA | W | 19 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Notre Dame | L | 35 | 23.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 35 | 27.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 73 | 39.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 59 | 44.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 33 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 45 | 37.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 32 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Notre Dame | L | 24 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 21 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 38 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 26 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 27 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUCLA | W | 29 | 39.5 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 27 | 34.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 42 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 39 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 49 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 42 | 38.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 27 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 25 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 7 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 30 | 26.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.