Putting Up Numbers· college football

USC’s passing yards with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 36.7 yards over with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and 31.0 yards under since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game over its last 25 games, 8 games against 1. The plain averages are 303.6 and 222.0, a difference of 81.6. All 3 away games were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. All 4 night games were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. All 7 unranked opponents were with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt.

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, receiver: 443 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 8 of those 25 games.

One game since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

passing yards a game over expected

The games

with Kayden Dixon-Wyattsince Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game
USC’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt or since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Nov 23, 2024@UCLAW260288.2
Nov 30, 2024vsNotre DameL360243.9
Dec 27, 2024vsTexas A&M (neutral)W295284.3
Aug 30, 2025vsMissouri StateW364292.2
Sep 6, 2025vsGeorgia SouthernW446303.2
Sep 13, 2025@PurdueW282293.5
Sep 20, 2025vsMichigan StateW234305.0
Sep 27, 2025@IllinoisL364262.2
Oct 11, 2025vsMichiganW265276.4
Oct 18, 2025@Notre DameL328263.7
Nov 1, 2025@NebraskaW135257.7
Nov 7, 2025vsNorthwesternW309271.0
Nov 15, 2025vsIowaW254245.3
Nov 22, 2025@OregonL330221.9
Nov 29, 2025vsUCLAW257255.5
Dec 30, 2025vsTCU (neutral)L280295.4
Aug 29, 2026vsSan Jose StateW341291.2
Sep 4, 2026vsFresno StateW412283.3
Sep 12, 2026vsLouisianaW269269.7
Sep 19, 2026@RutgersW277299.3
Sep 26, 2026vsOregonL326246.1
Oct 3, 2026vsWashingtonW245279.8
Oct 10, 2026@Penn StateW301215.5
Oct 24, 2026@WisconsinL258250.7
Oct 31, 2026vsOhio StateW222253.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt nor since Kayden Dixon-Wyatt’s last game: Kayden Dixon-Wyatt had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.