USC’s carries with Waymond Jordan and without Waymond Jordan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 0.9 carries over with Waymond Jordan and 4.3 carries under without Waymond Jordan over its last 25 games, 14 games against 8. The plain averages are 33.9 and 28.9, a difference of 5.1. All 5 games while unranked were with Waymond Jordan.
Waymond Jordan, running back: 911 rushing yards, 163 carries and 14 receptions in 14 of those 25 games, 34% of USC’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +5.2 difference in carries over expected with Waymond Jordan vs without Waymond Jordan is rare: shuffle which games were with Waymond Jordan and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +5.1 difference in carries with Waymond Jordan vs without Waymond Jordan is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Waymond Jordan and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UCLA | W | 26 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Notre Dame | L | 28 | 31.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 31 | 29.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 30 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 33 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 39 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 40 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 34 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 35 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Notre Dame | L | 29 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 35 | 34.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 29 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 29 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 27 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUCLA | W | 24 | 35.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 33 | 33.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 39 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 36 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 39 | 29.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 30 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 32 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 34 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 28 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 25 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 26 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Waymond Jordan nor without Waymond Jordan: Waymond Jordan had no game for the team that season, and sit out.