USC’s carries with Waymond Jordan and without Waymond Jordan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 0.0 carries under with Waymond Jordan and 10.3 carries under without Waymond Jordan in 2026, 8 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.0 and 25.0, a difference of 8.0. All 6 home games were with Waymond Jordan. All 5 day games were with Waymond Jordan. Both ranked opponents were with Waymond Jordan.
Waymond Jordan, running back: 335 rushing yards, 75 carries and 7 receptions in 8 games this season, 28% of USC’s carries in those games.
One game without Waymond Jordan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Waymond Jordan
−0.0
without Waymond Jordan
−10.3
-10-505
plain
33.0
25.0
253035
The games
with Waymond Jordanwithout Waymond Jordan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 39 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 36 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 39 | 29.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 30 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 32 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 34 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 28 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 25 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 26 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.