UCLA’s third-down conversion rate with Nico Iamaleava and without Nico Iamaleava
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCLA was 1.4 percentage points under with Nico Iamaleava and 7.7 percentage points over without Nico Iamaleava over its last 25 games, 16 games against 4. The plain averages are 37.9% and 44.9%, a difference of 7.0%. All 3 games after a bye were with Nico Iamaleava. All 3 of Deshaun Foster’s games were with Nico Iamaleava.
Nico Iamaleava, quarterback: 2,910 passing yards, 439 pass attempts and 280 completions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Nico Iamaleava
−1.4%
without Nico Iamaleava
+7.7%
-20%0%20%
A −9.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nico Iamaleava vs without Nico Iamaleava is about what you’d expect.
plain
37.9%
44.9%
20%40%60%
A −7.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nico Iamaleava vs without Nico Iamaleava is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nico Iamaleavawithout Nico Iamaleava
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nebraska | W | 46.2% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs Iowa | W | 64.3% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ Washington | L | 55.6% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs USC | L | 27.3% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 50.0% | 39.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 18.2% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 23.1% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 27.3% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 50.0% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 62.5% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 46.2% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 41.2% | 43.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 9.1% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsNebraska | L | 57.1% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 38.5% | 29.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsWashington | L | 15.4% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @USC | L | 41.7% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ California | W | 54.5% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 36.4% | 49.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 78.6% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 20.0% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon | W | 25.0% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 65.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsMichigan State | W | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 38.5% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 14 of these 20 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Nico Iamaleava nor without Nico Iamaleava: Nico Iamaleava had no game for the team that season, and sit out.