UCLA’s third-down conversion rate with Nico Iamaleava and since Nico Iamaleava’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCLA was 0.7 percentage points over with Nico Iamaleava and 7.2 percentage points over since Nico Iamaleava’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 42.9% and 47.0%, a difference of 4.1%. All 3 away games were with Nico Iamaleava. Both night games were with Nico Iamaleava. All 4 games while unranked were with Nico Iamaleava.
Nico Iamaleava, quarterback: 982 passing yards, 116 pass attempts and 72 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nico Iamaleava vs since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −4.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nico Iamaleava vs since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ California | W | 54.5% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 36.4% | 49.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 78.6% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 20.0% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon | W | 25.0% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 65.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 38.5% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.