UCLA’s carries with Nico Iamaleava and since Nico Iamaleava’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCLA was 3.1 carries over with Nico Iamaleava and 0.7 carries under since Nico Iamaleava’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 41.0 and 37.0, a difference of 4.0. All 3 away games were with Nico Iamaleava. Both night games were with Nico Iamaleava. All 4 games while unranked were with Nico Iamaleava.
Nico Iamaleava, quarterback: 982 passing yards, 116 pass attempts and 72 completions in 5 games this season, 20% of UCLA’s carries in those games.
3 games since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +3.7 difference in carries over expected with Nico Iamaleava vs since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +4.0 difference in carries with Nico Iamaleava vs since Nico Iamaleava’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ California | W | 31 | 37.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 41 | 43.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 47 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 39 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon | W | 47 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 37 | 37.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 46 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 28 | 38.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.