UCLA’s carries in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through UCLA’s game on Oct 31, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCLA was 3.2 carries over in a conference game and 6.5 carries under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 18 games against 7. The plain averages are 35.3 and 30.1, a difference of 5.1. All 5 ranked opponents were in a conference game. All 3 top-10 opponents were in a conference game. All 9 of Tim Skipper’s games were in a conference game.
UCLA’s +9.7 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 31, 2026.
carries a game over expected
A +9.7 difference in carries over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
A +5.1 difference in carries in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nebraska | W | 29 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs Iowa | W | 37 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ Washington | L | 33 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs USC | L | 26 | 28.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 31 | 32.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 28 | 38.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 30 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 22 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northwestern | L | 29 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 52 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 43 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 35 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 25 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsNebraska | L | 37 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 25 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsWashington | L | 22 | 31.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @USC | L | 26 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ California | W | 31 | 37.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 41 | 43.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 47 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 39 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon | W | 47 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 37 | 37.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsMichigan State | W | 46 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 28 | 38.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 31.