Tulsa’s third-down conversion rate with Dexter Williams II and without Dexter Williams II
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 0.1 percentage points over with Dexter Williams II and 4.0 percentage points under without Dexter Williams II over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 37.1% and 33.1%, a difference of 4.0%. All 3 night games were without Dexter Williams II. All 4 conference games were without Dexter Williams II.
Dexter Williams II, quarterback: 340 passing yards, 59 pass attempts and 34 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games with Dexter Williams II is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +4.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dexter Williams II vs without Dexter Williams II is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 38.9% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 45.5% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 26.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ South Florida | L | 31.3% | 33.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 26.3% | 37.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 42.1% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 40.0% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 30.8% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 36.8% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 31.3% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 28.6% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @East Carolina | L | 31.6% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 43.8% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 43.5% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 36.4% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Army | W | 58.3% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUAB | L | 30.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 9.1% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 23.5% | 34.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 17.6% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Navy | L | 43.8% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 54.5% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 50.0% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dexter Williams II nor without Dexter Williams II: Dexter Williams II had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.