Tulsa’s third-down conversion rate with Baylor Hayes and without Baylor Hayes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 1.5 percentage points under with Baylor Hayes and 3.1 percentage points under without Baylor Hayes over its last 25 games, 15 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.1% and 37.0%, a difference of 0.9%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Baylor Hayes. Both games after a bye were with Baylor Hayes.
Baylor Hayes, quarterback: 3,501 passing yards, 508 pass attempts and 307 completions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Baylor Hayes
−1.5%
without Baylor Hayes
−3.1%
-20%0%20%
A +1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Baylor Hayes vs without Baylor Hayes is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.1%
37.0%
20%40%
A −0.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Baylor Hayes vs without Baylor Hayes is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Baylor Hayeswithout Baylor Hayes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 38.9% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 45.5% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 26.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ South Florida | L | 31.3% | 33.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 26.3% | 37.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 42.1% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 40.0% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 30.8% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 36.8% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 31.3% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 28.6% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @East Carolina | L | 31.6% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 43.8% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 43.5% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 36.4% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Army | W | 58.3% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUAB | L | 30.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 9.1% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 23.5% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 17.6% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Navy | L | 43.8% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 54.5% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 50.0% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian, East Texas A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Baylor Hayes nor without Baylor Hayes: Baylor Hayes had no game for the team that season, and sit out.