Tulsa’s third-down conversion rate with Baylor Hayes and without Baylor Hayes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 4.0 percentage points under with Baylor Hayes and 0.1 percentage points over without Baylor Hayes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.1% and 37.1%, a difference of 4.0%. All 3 night games were with Baylor Hayes. All 4 conference games were with Baylor Hayes. All 4 second-half games were with Baylor Hayes.
Baylor Hayes, quarterback: 1,343 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 121 completions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Baylor Hayes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Baylor Hayes
−4.0%
without Baylor Hayes
+0.1%
-20%0%
plain
33.1%
37.1%
20%40%
A −4.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Baylor Hayes vs without Baylor Hayes is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Baylor Hayeswithout Baylor Hayes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 9.1% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 23.5% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 17.6% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Navy | L | 43.8% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 54.5% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Army | L | 50.0% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.