Tulsa’s passing yards with Baylor Hayes and without Baylor Hayes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 3.4 yards over with Baylor Hayes and 35.7 yards under without Baylor Hayes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 225.5 and 170.0, a difference of 55.5. All 3 night games were with Baylor Hayes. All 4 conference games were with Baylor Hayes. All 4 second-half games were with Baylor Hayes.
Baylor Hayes, quarterback: 1,343 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 121 completions in 6 games this season, 99% of Tulsa’s passing yards in those games.
2 games without Baylor Hayes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +55.5 difference in passing yards with Baylor Hayes vs without Baylor Hayes is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 227 | 234.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 126 | 193.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 164 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 176 | 211.7 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 211 | 236.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Navy | L | 278 | 223.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 249 | 207.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Army | L | 262 | 237.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.