Tulsa’s carries with Dexter Williams II and without Dexter Williams II
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 9.2 carries under with Dexter Williams II and 0.4 carries under without Dexter Williams II over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 32.5 and 32.2, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 0.4 carries lower with Dexter Williams II than without Dexter Williams II. All 3 night games were without Dexter Williams II. All 4 conference games were without Dexter Williams II.
Dexter Williams II, quarterback: 340 passing yards, 59 pass attempts and 34 completions in 5 of those 25 games, 8% of Tulsa’s carries in those games.
2 games with Dexter Williams II is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +0.3 difference in carries with Dexter Williams II vs without Dexter Williams II is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 35 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 49 | 37.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 36 | 39.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ South Florida | L | 47 | 37.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 28 | 38.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 37 | 42.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 33 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 43 | 40.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 37 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 24 | 39.5 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @East Carolina | L | 42 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 43 | 40.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 53 | 42.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 45 | 37.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Army | W | 38 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUAB | L | 42 | 40.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 32 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 37 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 23 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 37 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Navy | L | 28 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 33 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 26 | 29.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dexter Williams II nor without Dexter Williams II: Dexter Williams II had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.