Tulane’s third-down conversion rate with Trace Johnson and without Trace Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 6.0 percentage points over with Trace Johnson and 1.1 percentage points under without Trace Johnson over its last 25 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 44.4% and 40.3%, a difference of 4.1%. All 4 nonconference games were without Trace Johnson.
Trace Johnson, quarterback: 749 passing yards, 106 pass attempts and 65 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games with Trace Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A +4.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | 54.5% | 44.5% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | 50.0% | 46.0% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | 23.1% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 40.0% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 52.9% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 38.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 40.0% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 44.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 30.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 54.5% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 60.0% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 41.7% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 25.0% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 35.7% | 45.5% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | 21.4% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 33.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | 50.0% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 25.0% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 46.7% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 61.5% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trace Johnson nor without Trace Johnson: Trace Johnson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.