Tulane’s third-down conversion rate with Trace Johnson and without Trace Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 6.1 percentage points over with Trace Johnson and 1.1 percentage points under without Trace Johnson in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 44.4% and 40.3%, a difference of 4.1%. All 4 nonconference games were without Trace Johnson. All 4 first-half games were without Trace Johnson.
Trace Johnson, quarterback: 749 passing yards, 106 pass attempts and 65 completions in 4 games this season.
3 games with Trace Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A +4.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 21.4% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 50.0% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 33.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Army | L | 50.0% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 25.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 46.7% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 61.5% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.