Tulane’s third-down conversion rate with Maurice Turner and without Maurice Turner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 1.8 percentage points over with Maurice Turner and 0.6 percentage points over without Maurice Turner over its last 25 games, 14 games against 8. The plain averages are 41.5% and 42.7%, a difference of 1.3%. Expected was 2.5 percentage points lower with Maurice Turner than without Maurice Turner.
Maurice Turner, running back: 468 rushing yards, 71 carries and 7 receptions in 13 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Maurice Turner
+1.8%
without Maurice Turner
+0.6%
0%20%
A +1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Maurice Turner vs without Maurice Turner is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.5%
42.7%
40%60%
A −1.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Maurice Turner vs without Maurice Turner is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Maurice Turnerwithout Maurice Turner
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | 54.5% | 44.5% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | 50.0% | 46.0% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | 23.1% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 40.0% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 52.9% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 38.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 40.0% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 44.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 30.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 54.5% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 60.0% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 41.7% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 25.0% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 35.7% | 45.5% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | 21.4% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 33.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | 50.0% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 25.0% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 46.7% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 61.5% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Maurice Turner nor without Maurice Turner: Maurice Turner had no game for the team that season, and sit out.