Tulane’s third-down conversion rate with Jamauri McClure and without Jamauri McClure
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 1.0 percentage points under with Jamauri McClure and 5.2 percentage points over without Jamauri McClure over its last 25 games, 17 games against 8. The plain averages are 39.9% and 46.5%, a difference of 6.6%. Both bowl and playoff games were with Jamauri McClure.
Jamauri McClure, running back: 590 rushing yards, 99 carries and 3 receptions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jamauri McClure vs without Jamauri McClure is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jamauri McClure and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A −6.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jamauri McClure vs without Jamauri McClure is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jamauri McClure and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | 54.5% | 44.5% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | 50.0% | 46.0% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | 23.1% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 40.0% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 52.9% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 38.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 40.0% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 44.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 30.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 54.5% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 60.0% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 41.7% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 25.0% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 35.7% | 45.5% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | 21.4% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 50.0% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 33.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | 50.0% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 25.0% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 46.7% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 61.5% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.