Tulane’s rushing yards with Trace Johnson and without Trace Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 14.3 yards under with Trace Johnson and 4.9 yards over without Trace Johnson over its last 25 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 133.7 and 155.8, a difference of 22.1. All 4 nonconference games were without Trace Johnson.
Trace Johnson, quarterback: 749 passing yards, 106 pass attempts and 65 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games with Trace Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −19.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A −22.1 difference in rushing yards with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | 57 | 181.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | 115 | 151.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | 69 | 181.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 269 | 124.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 241 | 167.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 160 | 158.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 178 | 143.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 186 | 186.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 96 | 150.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 141 | 132.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 135 | 147.6 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 128 | 131.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 164 | 206.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 175 | 185.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 151 | 205.5 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 202 | 212.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 115 | 151.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | 54 | 122.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 223 | 155.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 95 | 142.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 285 | 187.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | 122 | 146.8 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 151 | 171.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 67 | 149.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 183 | 123.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trace Johnson nor without Trace Johnson: Trace Johnson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.