Tulane’s points of margin with Kadin Semonza and since Kadin Semonza’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 1.2 points under with Kadin Semonza and 0.1 points over since Kadin Semonza’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -4.2 and -0.7, a difference of 3.5. All 4 nonconference games were with Kadin Semonza. All 4 first-half games were with Kadin Semonza.
Kadin Semonza, quarterback: 804 passing yards, 119 pass attempts and 64 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Kadin Semonza’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Kadin Semonza vs since Kadin Semonza’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −3.5 difference in points of margin with Kadin Semonza vs since Kadin Semonza’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Duke | L | -14 | -16.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 4 | 5.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | -11 | -9.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 3 | 14.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Army | L | -3 | -7.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 14 | -12.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | -23 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 7 | 9.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.