Tulane’s points of margin with Jamauri McClure and without Jamauri McClure
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 0.5 points under with Jamauri McClure and 7.7 points under without Jamauri McClure over its last 25 games, 17 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.5 and -4.4, a difference of 4.9. Both bowl and playoff games were with Jamauri McClure.
Jamauri McClure, running back: 590 rushing yards, 99 carries and 3 receptions in 14 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jamauri McClure
−0.5
without Jamauri McClure
−7.7
-20020
A +7.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Jamauri McClure vs without Jamauri McClure is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.5
-4.4
-20020
A +4.9 difference in points of margin with Jamauri McClure vs without Jamauri McClure is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jamauri McClurewithout Jamauri McClure
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | -10 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | -21 | 4.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | -25 | -1.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 20 | -3.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 2 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 7 | -1.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | -35 | -15.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 17 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 7 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 7 | 6.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | -22 | 1.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 6 | -2.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 11 | 21.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 24 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 27 | 27.7 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 13 | -6.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | -31 | -15.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | -14 | -16.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 4 | 5.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | -11 | -9.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 3 | 14.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | -3 | -7.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 14 | -12.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | -23 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 7 | 9.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.