Tulane’s carries with Trace Johnson and without Trace Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 2.4 carries under with Trace Johnson and 1.0 carries under without Trace Johnson over its last 25 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 31.0 and 31.4, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 1.0 carries higher with Trace Johnson than without Trace Johnson. All 4 nonconference games were without Trace Johnson.
Trace Johnson, quarterback: 749 passing yards, 106 pass attempts and 65 completions in 4 of those 25 games, 14% of Tulane’s carries in those games.
3 games with Trace Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in carries over expected with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A −0.4 difference in carries with Trace Johnson vs without Trace Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Memphis | L | 18 | 35.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Army | L | 29 | 31.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Florida (neutral) | L | 27 | 42.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 40 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 45 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 35 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 39 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 42 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 25 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArmy | W | 29 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 25 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Memphis | W | 29 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 35 | 41.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 38 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 35 | 38.7 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 50 | 38.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 34 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Duke | L | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | W | 26 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 33 | 31.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 46 | 39.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Army | L | 26 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsMemphis | W | 37 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 22 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Charlotte | W | 34 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trace Johnson nor without Trace Johnson: Trace Johnson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.